Obama takes the gloves off for Biden, and Congress grills tech executives. It’s Thursday, and that is your politics tip sheet. Sign up here to get On Politics in your inbox each weekday.
Mark Zuckerberg, Facebook’s chief govt, throughout his testimony yesterday. One lawmaker confronted him with Zuckerberg’s personal emails, saying they confirmed a plot to take out a younger competitor.
No, Republicans most likely aren’t being undercounted within the polls.
With Trump lagging behind Biden in most nationwide surveys, the Trump marketing campaign has just lately begun to advance the argument that public pollsters are usually not reaching sufficient Republican members.
The marketing campaign has pointed to the truth that nationwide polls now typically discover not more than 1 / 4 of the voters self-figuring out as Republicans. The quantity was nearer to 1-third in 2016, based on exit polls and different postelection analyses.
“National polls are often askew from what these 2016 exit polls were,” Bill Stepien, Trump’s marketing campaign supervisor, argued in a name with reporters final week.
Certainly, pollsters — and information readers — should be involved about any proof that surveys may wrongly be disfavoring Trump, resulting in a repeat of polling misfires in 2016.
Nate Cohn, the Upshot’s polling skilled, regarded into the Trump marketing campaign’s claims by analyzing data from a string of New York Times/Siena College polls last month. Using the voter recordsdata from which respondents had been drawn, he concluded that Republicans have been no much less possible to reply to surveys than Democrats.
In reality, since folks in comparatively excessive-response demographics — like rural, white and older voters — are likely to skew towards the G.O.P., Republicans had really been a bit bit simpler for Siena’s pollsters to get in contact with than Democrats.
Generally talking, it’s normally not a good suggestion to anticipate consistency from the partisan make-up of the nation. As Gallup’s tracking numbers on the topic present, these figures are very fluid — simply influenced by the occasions within the information and the coverage positions presently being superior by one occasion or the opposite.
For what it’s price, the tracker now corroborates the very information that Stepien’s staff dislikes: In early June, the final time Gallup printed new information on this, it discovered that 25 p.c of the nation recognized as Republican.
That’s a part of a gradual downward development for Republicans all year long, as Gallup’s Jeffrey Jones writes in a brand new analysis. When counting independents who lean towards one occasion, Americans in January have been simply as prone to favor the Republican Party as to select the Democrats. By June, with the coronavirus raging and the financial system down, 50 p.c of respondents recognized as or leaned towards Democrats, with simply 39 p.c for Republicans.
NEW YORK TIMES EVENTS
Looking to a brighter financial future
Join us in the present day for 2 separate occasions:
First, at 1 p.m. Eastern, we’ll be discussing the distinctive challenges dealing with girls throughout the pandemic and easy methods to construct a extra equitable monetary future. Special friends are Alicia Garza, a principal on the Black Futures Lab and co-founding father of Black Lives Matter, Sallie Krawcheck, former Wall Street govt and co-founder and chief govt of Ellevest, a agency centered on closing the gender funding hole, and Bola Sokunbi, the founder and chief govt of Clever Girl Finance. Hosted by Jessica Bennett, gender editor at massive for The Times. You can R.S.V.P. here.
Then, at 5 p.m. Eastern, be a part of us for a 3-half occasion:
We’ll begin with a dialogue about employees needing higher jobs and higher pay with Robert B. Reich, the labor secretary beneath President Bill Clinton, and Ai-jen Poo, head of the National Domestic Workers Alliance, moderated by The Times’s David Leonhardt. Then, watch Okieriete Onaodowan (“Hamilton”) and Lexi Underwood (“Little Fires Everywhere”) carry out a poem written by taxi drivers, nannies and others from the Worker Writers School at PEN America. And hear from Times readers who share how a lot they make and whether or not they suppose their pay is honest. R.S.V.P. here.